「經典不敗」的老牌產品挑戰傳統思維

作者 : Bill Schweber

儘管我們經常有「今日安於現狀,明日就被淘汰」(here today, obsolete tomorrow)的想法,然而,成功的產品可能持續幾十年的產品生命週期...

在現代消費電子產品快速汰舊換新的世界裡,許多人很自然地認定所有的產品市場生命週期都很短。的確,或許有些人仍留戀於那些「傳統的」裝置,例如幾年前的PC或「行動電話」等,但那些機型都已經停產了,早就被一些更新、更好也更有吸引力的款式所取代。

許多產品的情況確實如此,但並非全部皆然。從最近的兩個例子即說明了:好的產品可能持續幾十年(甚至更多年)的製造。是德科技(Keysight Technologies)最近宣佈停產其經典款數位萬用電錶(DMM)。這款34401A DMM (如下圖)自1992年製造後,廣泛地應用在生產以及許多領域的測試工作台上。

由於這款產品十分受歡迎,是德科技還為此建立了「避免34401A末日預言」(Avoid the 34401A Apocalypse)的線上直播網頁,協助採用34401A的工程師面對即將而來的「停產」問題,他們能順利過渡至34461A新機型。(事實上,該公司早在2013年即已為此產品發出停產公告。)
[20160926 legacy NT02P1]
即將停產的是德科科技——原惠普(Hewlett-Packard;HP)——34401A數位萬用表。這款產品自推出後歷經該公司24年的「改朝換代」,預計將在今年底停產——HP量測事業群後來獨立成為安捷倫科技(Agilent Technologies),其後又更名為是德科技。

從更大規模來看,根據《華爾街日報》(The Wall Street Journal)的報導,由於銷售訂單連年下滑,波音公司(Boeing)已計劃在今年或明年停產最具有標誌性的古老747寬體噴射客機機型。這款經典不敗的飛機機型在1960年代末推出後至今已銷售超過1,500架了;目前「僅」有21架訂單未出貨。

你可能會假設這架飛機的銷售歷程就像一般的產品推出後,歷經了快速成長、廣泛應用、達到顛峰後陡降的軌跡。但其實不然。根據波音公司提供的資料(見下圖)顯示,該公司接收到的訂單週期性與我們一般所看到的電子產品情況全然不同。
[20160926 legacy NT02P2]
波音747在1960年代末推出後,其銷售數字並不像大部份的產品一樣,歷經簡單的上升、高峯期以及驟降的波形跡。
(來源:波音公司、《華爾街日報》)

當然,飛機和數位萬用表並不能相提並論。無疑地,34401A當然必須持續地進行更新與升級,但它畢竟不像747那樣的精密詳盡。你能想像一架飛機進行「工程變更」(ECO)會是多麼龐大的工程嗎?事實是,在大量生產與密集作業期間隨時間進展所累積的經驗,大幅提升並促進製造的效率、更好的飛行性能、增強的可靠性以及更少的意外。

如今,747在機身結構、引擎、航空電子設備等等,都已有重大的更新。例如,在1970年代的光纖陀螺儀(FOG)仍處於發展早期,如今,先進的技術進展已使其成為慣性導航的標準配備了。此外,基於種種理由,僅使用GPS導航並不理想,因此,目前還安裝了輔助導航(supplemental GPS)裝置。不過,它所使用的許多基本元件幾乎從一開始就沒改變過,因此,模具的成本當然也已經攤銷了。

同樣地,這種「經典不敗」的產品案例也適用於IC。亞德諾(Analog Devices;ADI)曾經製造、銷售與支援一款12 位元的類比數位轉換器¬¬——AD574,長達25年的時間,甚至為了使其實現更高性能與更低成本而重新設計這款晶片以及導入新的封裝。

你可能會想問:「為什麼?」,答案其實很簡單:客戶要求。尤其是在類比領域,一旦你展開一款元件設計、投入以及不可避免地進行特性瞭解與控制後,就會極度地不情願為其進行改變。關於這些風雲產品,其他IC供應商也有許多類似的故事可供討論。不過,相較於一款組裝複雜的數位萬用電錶,或是材料成本清單(BOM)中具有幾百萬個元件與數千套次組裝的飛機,要保持一款IC在市場上的活力以及實現量產多年當然更簡單了。

但重要的是記住:傳統的思維認為一款產品在經過幾年的生命週期後將會停產,這並不是正確的觀念,特別是在技術上更複雜的產品。這也表示建構元件與材料的供應商必須保持自家的生產線持續運轉,即使是組裝最簡單的產品在其BOM上也有許多項目。

你曾經使用過這一類推出幾十年後仍持續生產的「經典不敗」款產品嗎?哪一樣?為什麼?

編譯:Susan Hong

(參考原文:Long-Living Products Defy Conventional Wisdom,by Bill Schweber)

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