2020年全球晶圓代工成長率預估下修至個位數

作者 : TrendForce

考量疫情受控時程遞延及需求復甦不明朗,拓墣產業研究院將疫情爆發前業者提出的雙位數成長預估,修正為2020年全球晶圓代工市場產值可能為5%~9%的個位數成長,中位數目前預估為6.8%。

市場研究機構TrendForce旗下拓墣產業研究院最新調查指出,受新冠肺炎(Covid-19)疫情影響,若導致供應鏈斷鏈將增加半導體業者的營運難度,而商業活動及社會活動力的下降將引發旺季效應遞延或弱化的可能,使得2020年全球晶圓代工產值的成長幅度將面臨修正;考量疫情受控時程遞延及需求復甦不明朗,該機構將疫情爆發前業者提出的雙位數成長預估,修正為2020年全球晶圓代工市場產值可能為5%~9%的個位數成長,中位數目前預估為6.8%。

根據拓墣產業研究院分析,晶圓代工業者在第一季客戶端保留對疫情趨緩後市場出現需求反彈的可能性,為避免缺料而並未出現訂單大幅縮減情形,加上承接自2019年第四季末的庫存回補,基本上支撐晶圓代工業者2020年第一季營收表現。第二季,該機構預估疫情對訂單的影響較前一季略為顯著,部分消費性產品訂單或將進行調整,而從疫情催生出如遠距辦公、醫療應用的相關晶片需求則有增加,因此第二季訂單狀況雖有變動但幅度不大,加上去年同期基期低,即便業者第二季的營收出現季度衰退,尚能維持年度成長。

不過拓墣產業研究院也指出,對晶圓代工業者而言,第二季的訂單在晶片產出後雖有部分營收認列進第三季,但比重相對有限,此外,考慮疫情受控時程遞延與需求復甦時程不明朗,客戶可能在第三季評估較大幅度的訂單縮減以避免累積庫存,旺季效應或有遞延或弱化可能,恐將對業者下半年的營收造成衝擊。

 

回歸市場需求面分析,拓墣認為消費力衰退恐難以避免,即便晶圓代工業者冀望由5G基礎建設、遠端通訊推升之伺服器或資料中心需求,以及工業物聯網自動化等中長期支撐動能,然而新應用的營收貢獻比例仍不足以取代傳統大量的消費性電子產品,故晶圓代工業者需視供應鏈與市場受疫情衝擊的程度,動態調整營運策略與營收預估。

拓墣產業研究院認為,考量旺季效應遞延或弱化的可能性,並以疫情不易在下半年即獲得穩定控制為前提,對2020年的晶圓代工產值表現抱持審慎保守的態度,後續仍需視疫情的可控時程與消費市場的復甦狀況而定。

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