2021年台灣ICT市場十大趨勢預測

作者 : IDC

疫情加速了企業轉型的力道,隨著組織逐步復原,新一波的競爭強度將更甚以往,未來企業須更積極透過數位科技來加強組織發展,加速成長並重構領導能力。

根據市場研究機構IDC的觀察,2020年全球市場不分產業皆受到疫情衝擊產生嚴重影響,在整體經濟從動盪中逐步恢復的過程中,各類適應市場與商業實踐的新常態逐步成為主流。該機構預計,企業未來五年的IT投資決策也因此將重塑優先事項,將重點放在「重返成長」和適應「新常態」的科技投資及營運/商業模式。

IDC台灣總經理江芳韻表示:「疫情加速了企業轉型的力道,隨著組織逐步復原,新一波的競爭強度將更甚以往,未來企業須更積極透過數位科技來加強組織發展,加速成長並重構領導能力;」預計2021年台灣市場將受到下列十大趨勢影響:

1. 新常態驅動新世代解釋AI興起

新冠疫情持續蔓延,加上全球政治與經濟角力衝突不斷,這些非預期的事件不僅改變了企業的商業模式、重塑了產業價值鏈,也使得預測客戶需求與行為也變得更加困難。為了在瞬息萬變的未來世界取得先機,可協助企業掌握現況且輔助決策的新世代解釋型AI應運而生。

相較於傳統AI只能針對相對單純的因果關係提供建議,新世代解釋型AI可因應不同應用情境提供跨學科的多元分析結果,IDC認為新世代解釋型AI將有助於企業更從容的面對不預期事件、下達決策,預期企業採用率將於2021年達到53%,金融、健康、製造與零售等將是先行導入的重點產業。

2. 後疫情時代,數位彈性為企業之生存法則

為了從疫情的危機中復原,企業能否建立數位韌性與彈性已是首要之重。為了建立數位彈性,IDC發現全球企業啟動以雲為中心的數位基礎架構的速度是之前的兩倍,且企業正更積極地透過容器化的多雲/混和數位基礎架構以面對下一波新常態的各種挑戰。

多雲/混和的容器(container)平台因具備擴充性、高可用性管理介面與自動化負載平衡等優勢,已是後疫情協助企業進行高度變動與高度擴張運作,以及進行無縫接軌的重要選擇,包括金融、零售和電信產業等皆已針對雲端容器化數位基礎架構進行相關投資。

IDC預測到2023年,全球將有50%的企業將應用程序部署在容器化的多雲環境,同時間台灣將有30%的企業會將應用程序佈署容器化的多雲環境以獲得高度彈性的系統部署和管理,建立數位營運韌性迎接新一波挑戰。

3. 5G電信雲打開公有雲業者和電信商合作的契機

近年公有雲業者推出可支援5G通訊技術的邊緣運算解決方案,或收購具備SDN,NFV技術的軟體新創業者,將其核心技術整合至公有雲平台進而提出電信雲相關的解決方案。IDC認為將電信雲導入到5G核心至邊緣的基礎設施為電信業者數位轉型的過程,虛擬化技術將是電信雲成長的關鍵驅動力,因此對公有雲業者和電信商來說創造了合作的重要契機。

IDC預期未來十年電信雲市場的成長將是顯著的,這個市場目前仍尚未出現眾所公認的領先者,多供應商會是未來數年此市場的常態,未來也可能出現電信業者和公有雲業者之間成立聯盟的狀況發生。IDC觀察公有雲業者的規模經濟優勢使其有足夠資源從過往的競爭者角色轉變為電信業者的供應商、合作夥伴甚至客戶關係,這種關係的轉變將如何衝擊既有的ICT軟硬體設備商與電信業者合作的模式也將是未來觀察的重點

4. 智慧終端催生資料共享:AI邊緣運算重塑企業營運模式與生態版圖

隨著AI人工智慧的技術與應用在過去幾年的努力與推升,越來越多具備邊緣運算能力的智慧終端藉由手機、電腦、智慧家電、智慧製造相關的產品與設備。加上5G網路的佈建,也讓邊緣運算可被仰賴與運作的內容更加寬廣。IDC預估到2022年,80%的企業,在智慧終端相關的硬體與基礎架構上的投資將會增加4倍。

也因為智慧終端數量的增長,由終端所蒐集回來的資料量倍增,在資料數量與內容豐富度同步增加的趨勢下,過去僅止於公司內部分析使用的大數據,也將不再侷限於單純或固定的供應鏈,在萬物互聯的智慧環境下,勢必會催生出一套新型態的「資料共享」經濟與商業模式。未來企業的經營,更將因此衍生出新產品與新商業合作夥伴,進而創造出一個可互通的、動態的,能夠跨產業、具跨界合作的更多元性生態版圖。

5. 零信任網路存取時代到來:現代化遠距存取新方案 SDSA重要性日增

COVID-19疫情帶動遠距工作者大幅增加,使得企業開始重新審視既有遠距存取架構是否足夠安全以及具備可擴展性。過去,企業遠距存取架構多是透過固定邊界阻擋外部非授權用戶的存取,隨著遠距工作者增加以及企業對於公有雲的採用率提升,傳統固定的IT邊界已難以確保遠距存取的安全。

未來企業將面臨的是「零信任網路存取」時代,在此趨勢下,IDC認為企業需要的是現代化遠距存取方案,無論使用者身在何處、使用什麼設備、要存取放在雲端或企業機房的資源,都必須要能提供相對應的存取權限來實現無縫的使用者體驗,也就是軟體定義安全存取方案(SDSA)。IDC預估,2022年企業在SDSA方案上的投資將較目前成長四倍,並於2024年占據遠距存取市場中的16%,成為企業在數位轉型上重要的網路安全投資方向。

6. 數位身份認證2.0:基於區塊鏈的「自主身份」將逐步啟動

疫情期間的社交距離限制使得數位經濟活動較以往更為興盛,在此同時卻也顯現出在數位經濟的環境中,仍然缺乏一套以「消費者/使用者」為核心的身份認證框架。現行數位身份框架中,數位身份是由服務提供商授予使用者,相關資料也掌握於服務商手中,跨數位服務時身份無法互通,消費者既倚賴服務商卻又擔心個人資料遭到外洩;隨著新常態到來,以及各國對於個資保護相關規範越趨嚴謹,IDC認為數據主權應該回歸到使用者手中,進入Digital Identity 2.0時代。

Digital Identity 2.0 下用戶得以完全掌握個人資料的流向,並可用同一個數位身分於不同的數位服務中,透過區塊鏈的去中心、不可篡改、不可否認之特性,實現自主身份(Self-Sovereign Identity)。IDC預期,由於全球醫療產業大多已建立數據交換標準,故2022年醫療產業將率先實現自主身份;在台灣,保險業已開始積極推動產業級別的區塊鏈資料交換平台,預計保險與醫療業則有望成為台灣推動自主身份的先行產業。

7. 企業專網成為5G市場焦點,2025年將有五成企業採用專網

在5G正式開台後,電信業者除了冀望消費者能盡快採用5G服務外,企業市場採用5G專網更是營運商未來數年提升營收獲利的焦點。IDC認為企業專網將會有四種不同方式佈建,包括 1)公網, 2)營運商的專有網路, 3)混合型專網, 4)企業自建私網,在成本效益考量下,預計第二和第三類將會是未來5G企業專網布建的主流。IDC觀察未來五年國內使用5G企業專網的產業預計將以製造業為主,尤其是在半導體和高科技領域,其次在醫療和石化業,部分的政府單位和大學也有專網需求,預估2025年有台灣將有五成企業會採用5G專網服務。

8. 台灣企業轉型下一世代新列印架構(Next Generation Print Infra as a Service)

受COVID-19疫情影響,許多企業辦公室都暫時關閉以減少群聚感染機會,辦公室列印需求降低,因此IDC預估2021年,全球將有35%的大型企業將減少一半以上的列印設備架構。此時員工在家隔離與分散工作的比重急遽增加,為了因應遠距工作的成長需求,企業在雲端架構上的投資幅度必將提升以加速轉型。

基於此,IDC認為台灣列印市場將有三大轉型趨勢:第一,重新定義新舊列印設備的商業應用模式。第二,整合紙本與數位化的混和文件流程。第三,以雲端為基礎,利用下一世代新列印架構NGPIaaS在辦公室內外與家用多端點依需求列印。未來紙本印量將逐步下滑,而雲的角色在列印管理生態圈中越發重要,IDC預估2023年全球將有60%的企業將利用雲端管理列印,以適應不斷增長的虛擬勞動力,並為企業製造新的營運獲利。

9. 未來工作:混合辦公環境發展

COVID-19不斷地衝擊並考驗企業工作環境上的靈活度,促動了整個企業轉型的進程,未來在這樣的新常態環境下,企業是否能建立擁有開放、靈活的環境與團隊將是未來因應新常態的生存之道。這將促使未來的辦公環境走向更「混合」的概念,包括工作場域上將突破傳統,有更多跨時間、空間的場域設計,人才運用上獎同時考慮內部與外部人力運用的可能性,工作流程及文化也將更為彈性、包容。

為了建立這樣的能力,預期企業將導入新的科技技術以逐步過渡到混合式的工作環境, 包括5G、AI、IoT、AR/VR、IPA都將是關注的重點。其中AR/VR因為應用直覺,預計將大幅應用在現場環境體驗,遠端教育訓練、視訊會議等。IDC預測到2023年,全球將有70%的服務導向企業會使用AR作為私人助理、工作知識的接受與傳遞的應用;此外,預計將有50%以上的企業會支持更多混合辦公場景的應用,讓員工可以透過科技進步,進行更多即時、跨越現實障礙的合作模式。

10. 智慧裝置新競局

在疫情的影響下,在家工作與遠距教學成了新常態。IDC 調查發現在遠端工作情境下,企業最在意的是如何讓員工保持生產力,因此對於部署靈活度、安全性,易於管理且能確保生產力的終端裝置較以往更為積極。因應新型工作型態的改變,筆記型電腦已成為新常態下的關鍵角色。

在此趨勢下,IDC認為有兩個重要趨勢值得觀察:第一,Chrome因挾帶IT管理便利性與建置成本低廉的優勢,不僅受到教育市場青睞,也開始擴及商用市場,未來幾年在商用市場的發展值得重視。第二,為了確保新常態工作環境下的靈活性與穩定性,企業已開始關注與投資建置5G工作環境。

預期2022年將有三成的企業將會提供5G PC以確保遠距工作下作業流程可以無縫接軌。在這兩個趨勢發生的同時,MacOS正醞釀轉換新架構,未來不管從平台或架構角度來看,預期行動裝置都將呈現一波新境局。

 

 

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