DRAM均價可望於2021年Q1止跌回穩

作者 : TrendForce 

TrendForce旗下半導體研究處表示,包含PC DRAM、Server DRAM 、Mobile DRAM、Graphics DRAM以及Consumer DRAM在內的DRAM領域,在歷經超過兩季的庫存修正後,2021年第一季預計買方將開始提高庫存水位加以因應,整體DRAM的平均銷售單價將止跌回穩,甚至有微幅上漲的可能...

市場研究機構TrendForce旗下半導體研究處表示,包含PC DRAM (佔總供給位元數13%比例)、Server DRAM (34%)、Mobile DRAM (40%)、Graphics DRAM (5%)以及Consumer DRAM (8%)在內的DRAM領域,因整體屬寡佔市場型態,供需動能較NAND Flash明顯健康許多。在歷經超過兩季的庫存修正後,為減緩預期後續漲價所造成的成本上升,2021年第一季預計買方將開始提高庫存水位加以因應,使價格有所支撐,整體DRAM的平均銷售單價將止跌回穩,甚至有微幅上漲的可能。

在PC DRAM方面,從需求面來看,2021年第一季筆記型電腦的整機生產量預估為約5,270萬台,除了受傳統淡季效應與農曆新年工作天數減少影響,加上2020年第四季基期偏高,因此預估季減約9%。然而,大部分的PC OEM品牌廠,受惠於今年筆電出貨暢旺(年成長20%),PC DRAM庫存水位僅4~5週,因此預估短期內廠商增加庫存的意向,將會持續拉升需求動能。

從供給面來看,DRAM三大原廠三星(Samsung)、SK海力士(SK Hynix)、美光(Micron)的整體供給位元成長在近兩季並未有大幅提升;此外,受惠於mobile DRAM的拉貨動能暢旺,第三季末起各廠就計畫性地將產能持續轉向該領域,導致PC與server DRAM產能受到排擠。因此,在2021年第一季需求有撐,供給未明顯成長的情況下,PC DRAM均價不易下跌。

 

 

Server DRAM方面,從需求面來看,因每年首季均為品牌廠淡季週期,且每年第一季server DRAM的採購力道相較全年也普遍較低,然唯須留意data center在DRAM價格即將漲價前夕的提前補單動作。從供給面來看,DRAM三大原廠近期受mobile DRAM採購動能復甦影響,自2020年9月份起陸續轉移server DRAM產能至mobile DRAM,與PC DRAM的供給態勢雷同,在產能排擠的效應下,2021年第一季server DRAM供給位元成長非常有限。

整體而言,TrendForce認為價格落底、產能趨緊等因素導致市場對於提前備貨的共識顯著提高。展望2021年,雖然每年首季度均為品牌廠出貨的淡季週期,但在價格反轉前夕與美光跳電事件的預期性心理影響下,將會刺激買方提前補單。且現階段由於市場近期由部分產品線率先領漲後,同時伴隨mobile DRAM與PC DRAM需求暢旺,server DRAM的價格下行區間有機會提前終結,明年首季將正式漲價。

Mobile DRAM方面,從需求面來看,2021年第一季市場將持續受到華為禁令的影響,預期受惠的其他品牌仍會維持積極的生產備料模式,因此有別以往由旺季進入淡季,往往動輒10%以上的衰退,預計明年第一季生產總量可望接近3.3億支,季減6%。從供給面來看,有如先前所述,DRAM三大原廠對於明年第一季的供給位元成長沒有顯著調升,加上今年第四季尚有mobile DRAM的需求未交付而延後,故該領域的供給仍緊張。

整體而言,TrendForce預測明年第一季mobile DRAM合約價格與今年第四季大致持平。以需求大宗的品牌廠而言,在先前議定的special deal以及大量需求的支撐下,價格變動幅度不大;反觀其他規模較小的品牌廠,出於排擠效應,加上需求容量較小,原廠供給意願較低等因素,明年第一季合約價格不排除微幅上揚的可能,幅度約落在3%以內。

Graphics DRAM部分,從需求面來看,新顯卡、新遊戲機及礦機持續扮演graphics DRAM需求的三大支柱,帶動graphics DRAM成為眾DRAM產品中率先漲價者。TrendForce預估,在強勁的需求持續帶動下,主流產品GDDR6價格將於2021年第一季上漲約5-10%。從供給面來看,現有的graphics DRAM原廠多以較成熟的20nm或1Xnm生產,然而同樣大量使用1Xnm製程的mobile DRAM需求的好轉使得graphics DRAM產能遭到排擠,而該現象即便進入明年第一季,原廠的供貨達成率仍然不佳,因此漲價態勢最為明確。

Consumer DRAM部分,從需求面來看,DDR3受電視、機上盒及網通相關產品帶動,需求逐漸回溫,帶動小容量(DDR3 1/2/4Gb及以下容量)產品的需求逐步攀升;許多採取短週期合約的中小型客戶已提早面臨被漲價的情況,不過一線客戶仍大致維持持平走勢。從供給面來看,SK海力士已正式停產DDR3 2Gb,而三星亦逐漸將Line 13的舊DRAM製程轉移至生產CIS;DDR3產品在韓系廠商陸續減少產出的情況下,價格有率先被拉抬的態勢。而DDR4類別產品則因與主流PC與server的產品關聯性高,因此價格表現與該兩者較一致,皆不易下跌。

 

 

 

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