迎接新常態:中國產業高層眼中的未來十年

作者 : EE Times China

在電子產業中,新常態是一種什麼狀態?在產業格局重啟之下,我們該如何主動重構、重塑它?新常態下,全球及中國電子產業未來十年走勢又將如何?在2020年11月由ASPENCORE在中國深圳主辦的全球CEO峰會圓桌論壇上,產業精英們分享了他們的觀點。

上一次提到「新常態」這個詞,應該是在2008年金融經濟危機之後的那段時間。2020年,經過疫情和一些國際形勢的變化,不少人認為經濟走勢接近觸底,因此新常態這個詞又被大家帶了出來。

在電子產業中,新常態是一種什麼狀態?在產業格局重啟之下,我們該如何主動重構、重塑它?新常態下,全球及中國電子產業未來十年走勢又將如何?在2020年11月由ASPENCORE在中國深圳主辦的全球CEO峰會圓桌論壇上,產業精英們分享了他們的觀點。

 

 

電子產業新常態

大部分人都認為疫情以及其帶來的影響遠未觸底。Imagination全球副總裁兼中國區總經理劉國軍認為,歐洲至少還得三個月,美國要六個月以後才會好轉,再加上中美之間的科技戰,兩者共同催生了電子產業新常態。安謀中國市場及生態副總裁梁泉則認為,一兩年內恐怕都無法忽視疫情對產業帶來的影響。而且疫情還可能會為居家辦公的人造成心理上的影響,因為長期在家導致生活、工作不分,可能會讓大家更難恢復到以前平穩工作的狀態。

但正如那句古話「不破不立」,任何週期性的波動對一個企業家來說,可能既是一個風險,也是個機遇。思特威電子科技有限公司創辦人暨執行長徐辰就覺得,任何一個產業發展都有起伏有高低,任何企業的發展也不可能一帆風順,會「在振盪中前行」,這種週期性的規律是非常正常的。只要有全球化戰略眼光的大局觀,認清方向實現快速反覆運算、小步快跑,就可以克服困難,取得企業本身的發展。

兆易創新執行長暨感測器事業部總經理程泰毅也持相似觀點,他認為無論產業危機或者健康危機,都可能會帶來一些區域性的整合,這個過程中一些傳統方式會被打破、會消失,但同時也會產生新的機會。因為半導體是非常全球化的產業,分工非常細,疫情和地緣政治會對全球化帶來一些挑戰,但大趨勢不會改變,這是經濟規律決定的。所以觸底不一定是向上或向下的過程,而是調整、重新平衡的持續過程。

不過,疫情畢竟不是一個短期可以解決的事,因為大多數國家沒有像中國一樣把疫情控制住。作為一家員工遍佈全球各地的公司,華為企業業務全球行銷副總裁李俊朋表示,疫情之後也會經常與各地員工線上開會,了解大家的情況;原先去拜訪客戶基本上以線下為主,現在大家都接受電話會議的方式,這個其實也算是數位化的新常態。

而他認為,疫情帶來的並不都是負面的衝擊,疫情對人的行為方式、生活方式的改變,會激發大家對數位化的訴求,對於半導體、通訊以及網際網路產業來說,反倒有可能加快進行資訊化和智慧化的過程。

全球電子產業格局「重思、重構、重升」

在疫情和中美科技戰的影響下,全球電子產業的格局已經開始「重啟」,並將在自我調整的過程中實現「重構」。處於近年科技戰中心的華為,面對重構的挑戰可能最大,對此李俊朋認為,重構就是數位化轉型,「華為雖說在電子產業或者資訊產業中是比較領先的,但無論是已經領先,還是走在領先路上的企業,都必須要面對數位化轉型。」

另一方面,金融和網際網路產業的數位化之所以做得更徹底,是因為他們屬於「雲端原生」企業,數位化是寫在基因裡面的。就像過去十年的BAT (EETT編按:百度、阿里巴巴與騰訊)、Facebook、Google的發展速度遠遠超過了傳統產業,從某些角度來講,電子產業也已經算是傳統產業了。

這個產業離不開智慧財產權(IP),對於一家IP業者來說,更希望世界是整體的,生態是平衡的,大家用到的IP是一樣的。因為要實現世界範圍內的合作,不可能有一個割裂開的、區域性的標準或生態。例如Imagination,雖然在2017年被中資背景的基金全資收購了,但目前所有的IP和核心技術、專利,完全是英國的,至少在目前跟中美科技戰沒有關係,不會影響到與中國市場的合作。所以劉國軍認為,對IP業者來說,重構就是戰略的重構,要積極地在中國打造本地生態,落實研發能力,讓技術在中國市場生根、開花結果。

安謀中國的梁泉以開店為例,表示如果將晶片公司比喻為一家飯館或者商場,IP業者就是提供基礎設施的。因為疫情很多飯館關閉,但又有人在原址上重新開起來,生意可能更好,因為需求一直都在;商場裡也在做重構,以前賣衣服的可能轉行做娛樂,這就像半導體產業一樣,需求、多樣性和複雜程度都跟原來不一樣了。雖然外部環境壓力較大,但是這兩類重構會讓企業更適應半導體市場的發展和需求變化,IP業者也會不斷拓展自己的邊界,讓更多人開好他們的「飯館」。

站在中國晶片廠商的角度,思特威電子的徐辰認為,「重構」應該參考十年來全球半導體發展的大趨勢;首先是中國本土廠商目前只能供應中國整體晶片需求量的15%,這個數字要超過50%,就是中國半導體產業一個發展契機;其次是中國本土系統公司的成長,提出了一些高階晶片的客製化需求,在這點上中國業者的溝通、開發速度和員工勤奮度等方面優於海外公司。

第三個趨勢是IDM型企業的沒落,二、三十年前在美國,如果一家晶片公司不是IDM就不可能取得成功,從製程到EDA軟體都需要絕對客製化,直到10年前,晶圓代工開始湧現,智慧行動裝置推動了整個製程設計能力的提升。IDM在製程技術不斷提升的過程中漸漸敗下陣來,Fabless廠商則因為晶圓代工廠所有製程節點都是開放的,有機會超越IDM實現領先優勢。

兆易創新程泰毅也認為,當前的疫情和政治衝擊不能從本質上改變半導體全球化的合作與競爭。智慧化時代的開啟對全球的產業和企業都是一個很大的機會,甚至比新常態的機會更大。在新機遇面前,中國本土公司的新產品、新需求在早期就可以參與進來,而且還是透過全球化的合作、IP、工具和供應鏈去完成的,這是產業「重構」帶來的更大機會。

全球及中國電子產業未來十年走勢

可見在新常態下,電子產業中各類公司發展的機遇點各不同,那麼他們又如何看待全球及中國電子產業未來十年的走勢呢?

對於Imagination來說,在堅持全球化、開放合作的前提下,劉國軍認為最大的機遇肯定還是中國。在全球科技競爭的事實下,中國整個社會正在數位資訊化,而其基礎就是電子和半導體,因此中國對本土半導體核心技術的研發投入非常大,給廠商提供了非常難得的資源。今後十年或者更多年內,中國的電子或半導體產業能夠持續成長的時間和空間都是很大。

在新興的AIoT和大計算領域,以及雲端和邊緣端晶片,中國的確都是最活躍的市場。未來在AIoT領域,梁泉認為客製化或細分市場需求是非常好的機會,因為細分市場的需求從晶片到軟體、系統都很垂直,別人很難取代,也很少發生直接競爭,Arm鼓勵創業公司去做這些市場;而在大計算領域,巨頭公司應該承擔起責任來,去做好那些複雜且有難度的事。

徐辰覺得,中國在硬體、晶片設計方面的能力有目共睹,但要冷靜對待、不要過熱,跟國際友商保持全球化的分工合作關係,而不是只做競爭對手。在前十年創立的半導體公司,如今都已具有一定規模,那麼新創公司的機會點可能會在這些大公司身上。比如大公司在這個時間點可能想要擴充自己的業務,更新自己的技術,收購一個新團隊是進入新市場的好辦法。徐辰是從矽谷回國創業的典型範例,他也呼籲正在或準備創業的國外朋友們儘快地回到中國創業大浪潮中,未來中國一定會湧現像Intel、Sony這樣偉大的公司。

隨著資料化、智慧化帶來對記憶體晶片、感測器的大量需求,程泰毅對產業未來五年的發展也非常樂觀。至於發展的速度,他認為取決於技術和需求處在相對健康的匹配程度,如果發展超過了需求,會出現泡沫,如果太過滯後,可能滿足不了。

未來十年,會是風起雲湧的十年,是革命性的十年。人類從狩獵時代到農耕時代,花了數萬的時間;從農耕時代到工業時代,花了幾千年時間;從第一次工業革命到第二次工業革命,花了一百多年;第二次工業革命到第三次工業革命是80年。現在離第三次工業革命已經過了60年,人類即將邁入第四次工業革命。

華為內部做了一個分析,認為到2030年人類會初步進入智慧社會,智慧社會的一些特徵和變化,可能也是現在應該抓住的機會。李俊朋從五個層面分析指出,首先在政府層面會有一個「以人為本」的數位政府,讓大家生活更便利;在經濟層面,「泛勞動力」會成為大趨勢,未來計算勞動力的時候,要把各種機械臂、機器人也算進去,透過提高教育水準,再配合智慧型機器的生產力,中國整個生產力會大大提升。

在社會層面,李俊朋認為呼籲多年的社會公平會用技術的方式實現,也就是「數位平等」。兩個例子就是教育和醫療的平等,偏遠山區資源匱乏,但現在可以用5G手段實現遠端授課、看病甚至手術。在文化層面,十年或者更久以後,人類將從繁重的創造物質財富勞動中解脫出來,轉而創造精神財富——也就是人工智慧替代不了的那部分,將會成為未來的重點;最後是環境層面,在5G、AI、雲端等先進技術的共同作用下,能讓人類第一次有可能去控制地球的新陳代謝,讓整個環境變得更好。

2030年,我們如果真的要進入智慧社會,十年期間很多新公司會起來。但每次工業革命後,都有60~70%的公司會被淘汰,只有30%的公司存活。未來你的企業能不能生存,也許就取決於能不能抓住十年中的這些機會。

本文原刊於EE Times China網站

 

 

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