引發全球晶片荒 「長鞭效應」何時停歇?

作者 : 顧正書,EE Times China

自然災害和失火等不可控因素雖然是導致全球晶片荒的一個原因,但畢竟是暫時的,但人為干預,特別是政府的行政干預,會為半導體供應鏈造成長期且無法估量的負面影響…

全球半導體供應鏈的「長鞭效應」(bull whip effect)短期內不會消失,但美國政府可以與晶圓代工廠商、晶片供應商,以及汽車、PC和電子設備廠商協作,以減緩這一經濟現象對全球經濟的負面影響。

何謂「長鞭效應」?

在商學院讀書時,筆者第一次從營運管理學教授那裡聽到「長鞭效應」這個詞。這是指供應鏈上的一種需求變異放大現象,也就是訂單資訊流從最終用戶端向上游供應鏈傳遞時,因為無法有效地共用資訊,使得資訊扭曲而逐級放大,從而導致需求資訊出現越來越大的波動。這種資訊扭曲的放大作用在圖形上很像一條甩起的長鞭,因此被形象地稱為「長鞭效應」。

 

 

史丹佛大學商學院營運管理學教授Hau L. Lee在1997年《MIT Sloan Management Review》雜誌上發表了一篇有關「長鞭效應」的學術論文,其中引用P&G的尿布例子,說明了這一經濟學現象在各個產業的普遍性。在眼下影響全球的晶片荒中,實亦可以找到「長鞭效應」的痕跡。

哈佛商學院製造和供應鏈管理教授Willy Shih在其《富比士》專欄裡分析了引起「長鞭效應」的三個主要原因:

  • 需求預測不準確和訂購反應過度:當供應鏈採購經理看到需求增加時,他們可能會試圖「額外訂購」一點,以免出現短缺。他們甚至會樂觀地認為需求有不斷上升的趨勢。複雜的產品都會涉及多級供應鏈,而每一級都有可能放大訂單需求;
  • 訂單交貨延遲:如果訂單沒有及時交付,採購人員的自然傾向是下次訂購量更大,擔心短缺而希望有一些安全庫存。如果已經出現短缺,可能會導致恐慌訂購;
  • 短缺博弈:如果某一熱門產品出現供應緊張而有訂購限額的情況,採購人員就會下賭注「博弈」,不顧實際需求而拼命搶購,這已經不是為了自己的產品需要,而是不讓同行搶走配額的心理作怪。

導致晶片荒的市場供需因素

Gartner最新發佈的資料顯示,2021年第一季全球PC出貨量同比成長32%(如果將主要針對教育市場的Google Chromebooks也算進來,全球PC總市場同比成長高達47%),這是PC產業20年來成長最快的一年。究其原因,Gartner研究總監Mikako Kitagawa認為,首先是2020年初因為疫情原因導致幾乎所有商品銷售下滑,PC也不例外。當在家辦公或上學開始大範圍普及時,下半年PC及配件出貨量出現明顯上升,從而延續至今。

另一個不太明顯的原因就是全球半導體晶片短缺。本已成熟的全球PC市場被五大廠商壟斷,誰都想借此機會增加市佔率,出現晶片「囤貨」和超額訂購的現象也就不足為奇了。她預測下一季有可能下降,因為晶片缺貨導致PC交貨期延長,有的長達4個月。

這一統計資料反映了「宅經濟」消費的市場需求成長,同時汽車晶片缺貨又反映出「外出」消費的下降。Toyota和GM等整車廠商因為疫情導致銷售下降,而降低了汽車半導體元件的採購量,因為汽車產業大都採用Toyota始創的「JIT」(Just-in-Time)生產模式,不敢像手機產業那樣囤積很多庫存和佔用寶貴的現金流。汽車半導體供應商正好借此機會將產能轉移到PC和其他需求旺盛的電子產品上。等市場復甦,汽車銷售開始回升時,汽車廠商卻發現無法繼續從半導體供應商那裡獲得充足的供貨。於是,出現了汽車晶片荒。

據相關研究機構統計,半導體在汽車整體價值中含量現在還不太高。一輛售價3萬美元的電動車,半導體含量約600~700美元。而汽車廠商對車規級半導體元件的要求又特別嚴格,因此汽車半導體廠商大都採用比較成熟的製程,在這類晶圓生產線上的投資也不像先進的數位晶片製程那樣大。多年來,汽車廠商很少遇到晶片缺貨的現象,自然對零組件的採購沒有那麼重視,也沒有相應的積極預防和應對措施。

習慣於「Drive-through」購買麥當勞漢堡和薯條的普通美國人也許認為「chip」就是薯條,從來不知道他們駕駛的車也需要很多「chip」(晶片)。而汽車裝配廠停產卻是影響到每個人的大事,難怪美國總統總統拜登專門為此召開緊急會議。

跟中國一樣,「晶片」現在也成了美國普通老百姓的熱門話題。半導體市場研究機構IC Insights總裁Bill McLean感慨道,這是他在半導體產業從業41年來首次聽到人們一早起來就開始議論,「原來沒有半導體晶片所有的電子裝置都無法工作」。就是因為「汽車缺芯」,才讓美國上至總統下至普通百姓意識到晶片原來跟薯條一樣重要。

其實半導體已經成為世界第四大貿易商品,僅次於原油、成品油和汽車。據美國半導體產業協會(SIA)資料統計,過去30年來(1990~2020年),全球半導體市場的年複合成長率為7.5%,高於同期的全球GDP的5%成長率。1995~2015年,半導體創新為全球GDP做出的直接貢獻預計超過3兆美元,而間接貢獻約有11兆美元。

天災雪上加霜

今年2月,德州奧斯丁大雪導致汽車晶片最大製造商之一的恩智浦半導體(NXP)被迫關閉兩座8吋晶圓廠,主要生產微控制器(MCU)和微處理器(MPU)、電源管理元件、RF收發器和放大器,以及各類感測器。三星(Samsung)也短暫關閉了兩座晶圓廠,雖然影響不是特別大。另外,德州儀器(TI)、英飛凌(Infineon)、X-FAB、Skorpios、TowerJazz和Qorvo在德州都設有晶圓廠,也受到了不同程度的影響。

3月,日本瑞薩(Renesas)一座以車用半導體為主的12吋晶圓廠起火,這無疑對車用晶片的供應短缺是雪上加霜,嚴重影響到汽車產業的製造產能。

還有,台灣缺水問題。2020年是台灣56年來首次沒有颱風通過的一年,但又出現了缺水的問題,據稱台積電(TSMC)花費新台幣2億元從外地預定上百輛卡車運水。半導體中的雜質對電阻率的影響非常大,當半導體摻入微量雜質時,雜質原子附近的週期勢場受到干擾會形成附加的束縛狀態。因此,在半導體的生產加工過程中,需要用超純水進行清洗,對水質的要求也很高。為了保證生產出超大規模的積體電路,除高純原材料、高純氣體、高純化學藥品外,超純水也是其中關鍵元素之一。

人為干預影響更甚

自然災害和失火等不可控因素雖然是導致全球晶片荒的一個原因,但畢竟是暫時的。如果半導體廠商與客戶協作溝通好,是可以採取應急措施讓損失降到最低的。但是,人為干預的因素,特別是政府的行政干預,會為半導體供應鏈造成長期且無法估量的負面影響。

川普政府對部分中國半導體和電子設備企業的限制,影響的不單單是華為和幾家中國公司,而是全球供應鏈的正常市場供需。

限制先進半導體製造設備出口給中芯國際等中國晶片製造廠商,導致全球半導體供應鏈的新增產能延遲或受阻。這不但影響到美國半導體設備供應商,也涉及歐洲和日本的供應商。

限制美國晶片廠商供貨給華為,甚至不允許台積電為華為代工生產先進製程晶片。華為輪值董事長徐直軍坦言,美國政府的出口管制迫使華為提前超額預訂關鍵晶片和元件,以做好美國政府和公司完全斷供的打算。

抓緊「囤貨」的不止華為一家公司,所有被列入美國商務部實體清單的中國企業都紛紛提前「囤貨」1個月、3個月甚至6個月的晶片庫存。這些中國企業在拼命囤貨的同時,也開始尋找「中國國產替代」,這對中國本土IC設計廠商雖然是好事,但有些核心元件畢竟需要時間導入和磨合。晶圓製造的複雜性、交貨期延長和盲目囤貨導致了「短缺博弈」心態,很多中小IC設計公司一方面面臨客戶需求暴漲的壓力,另一方面又不得不面對晶圓代工廠的產能吃緊局面。

在緊急情況下,人們會失去理性而瘋狂搶購某些被視為「救命稻草」的商品。2003年「SARS」期間的醋,去年新冠肺炎疫情早期的口罩和酒精,都短期成了緊缺物資。這些日常消費品的生產和供應可以很快調整,但半導體晶片的生產卻沒那麼容易,交期延長更進一步加劇了廠商採購人員的「短缺博弈」心理,從而讓「長鞭效應」達到最大程度的扭曲,凸顯出來就成了嚴重的社會問題。

如何應對晶片荒?

英特爾(Intel) CEO Pat Gelsinger最近在接受媒體採訪時聲稱,該公司正抓緊時間調整其晶圓廠產線,預計6~9個月內可以為汽車和醫療設備廠商提供晶片生產。但要徹底解決晶片荒問題,他認為至少需要2年時間。

晶圓廠產能是晶片荒的供應面,在需求面仍然十分混亂。哈佛商學院製造管理教授Willy Shih認為,廠商同時向多家供應商訂購讓局面更加複雜化,他舉例說明,假如一家汽車廠商的採購人員被告知某個晶片的交貨期是1年時間,他會採取什麼措施?十之八九會向可以提供同類晶片的其他供應商下訂單,而且訂單額比實際需求要大。台積電董事長劉德音在最近投資者會議上也證實了客戶超額下單囤貨的事實,這些訂單和需求的混亂讓晶片製造廠商更加難以準確判斷實際需求,而晶圓廠的投資動輒幾十億美元(先進製程的晶圓廠建造成本要遠高於建造一艘航空母艦),廠商不會輕易投資擴大產能。

眼下能夠做的就是在現有產能上「擠牙膏」,這正是美國最大晶圓代工廠商GlobalFoundries正在做的。該公司CEO Thomas Caulfield表示,在現有生產線上切換晶片類型不太容易,因為不同的晶片需要不同的設備和原材料,製程流程也不盡相同。然而,GlobalFoundries正派遣其位於美國、新加坡和德國工廠的工程師抓緊時間尋找任何可能的空閒生產線和時間,以擠出一點額外的產能。採用的辦法包括:延遲一些正常的維護保養操作、加速晶圓在生產線上的移動速度等。

 

GlobalFoundries位於紐約的晶圓廠工程師正在搶時間「擠產能」。

(來源:WSJ)

 

無論汽車廠商、PC廠商還是醫療設備廠商,如果大家願意共用資訊,讓訂單資訊公開透明,晶片荒的問題也許可以理出頭緒。但是,各家都有自己的小算盤,誰願意共用真實資料呢?整機廠商不願意,晶片供應商也不願意公開其實際產能資料,而政府能夠強制大家公開訊息嗎?顯然在美國不大可能。

既然短期應急措施沒有太多能做的,那就談談長期戰略吧,這是美國政客喜歡談論的話題。拜登政府拿出了500億美元的晶圓製造投資預算,用於補貼美國半導體廠商的晶圓產能擴增。雖然這個專案預算獲得了民主和共和兩黨一致通過,但短期也無法緩解汽車晶片短期的局面。長期價值呢?恐怕也難以讓美國實現晶圓製造的自給自足。據美國半導體產業協會的研究預測,美國要實現晶片製造的自給,在接下來的10年內需要政府和企業投資1.4兆美元。

其實全球最大的三家晶圓廠都在計畫投資擴展,英特爾宣佈投資200億美元在亞利桑那州新建兩座晶圓廠;台積電將其2021年投資預算提升至300億美元,幾乎是2020年的兩倍;而三星也正計畫增資170億美元在德州建造一座新的晶圓廠。然而,這些巨額投資大都用於先進的晶圓製造製程,目的是為了滿足需求強勁且利潤豐厚的高性能數位晶片的需要,例如5G手機和資料中心伺服器所用的晶片。

對於汽車廠商來說,除了高階ADAS和自動駕駛車輛外,大部分燃油車和新能源車所需要的半導體元件還是28nm及以上這些已經成熟的製造製程。全球汽車半導體三巨頭英飛凌、恩智浦和瑞薩在投資擴建晶圓製造產能方面卻沒有聽到太多聲音。現在最為短缺的晶片種類是電源管理元件和MCU晶片,因為所有電子產品都需要MCU這樣的「大腦」來處理運算任務,同時需要電源管理晶片和功率元件來為各部分功能模組的正常工作供電。

結語

像尿布和紙巾這類需求相對平穩且生產供應可以靈活調整的商品,出現「長鞭效應」現象也可以透過市場調節和人為積極應對措施來快速緩解。然而,半導體晶片產品的製造涉及全球供應鏈,不但需要供應鏈上各個環節的協調,而且需要政府的干預和政府之間的協商談判。儘管美國、中國大陸、台灣和其他國家地區都在積極應對這樣的「晶片荒」,但短期內恐怕難以消除長鞭效應。看來至少要等到2022年才能看到長鞭的消失,當前政府可以做的就是撥款安撫民心;晶圓廠能夠做的就是擠產能;汽車廠商和其他設備廠商應該做的是不要再盲目下單;而我們普通老百姓能夠做的就是暫時不要買車、手機、PC和各種電子產品。

參考資料:

1.EE Times: The Chip Shortage: Moore Than Potatoes by Don Scansen.

Forbes: Toilet Paper Surplus, Ketchup And Semiconductor Chip Shortages – Supply Chain Forecasting Is Hard by Willy Shih

2.WSJ: Why the Chip Shortage Is So Hard to Overcome by Eun-Young Jeong & Dan Strumpf

3.Chip shortage will last beyond 2022 as demand far outstrips supply, Intel chief says by Jeanne Whalen

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