原廠庫存低水位支撐 第三季記憶體價格續漲

作者 : TrendForce

第三季整體DRAM價格將續漲約3~8%;NAND Flash則受企業SSD及晶圓需求攀升,整體價格季漲幅將由原先的3~8%,上調至5~10%。

全球市場研究機構TrendForce表示,受各終端買方於今年上半年積極備庫存的帶動,使得記憶體原廠庫存偏低,DRAM原廠平均庫存僅3~4週;NAND Flash供應商平均庫存則為4~5週。面對第三季伺服器客戶欲加強採購力道,原廠針對各類記憶體產品報價並無降價求售的必要性,故TrendForce預估,第三季整體DRAM價格將續漲約3~8%;NAND Flash則受企業SSD及晶圓需求攀升,整體價格季漲幅將由原先的3~8%,上調至5~10%。

記憶體高庫存恐成手機品牌廠下半年隱憂

從終端客戶的記憶體庫存量來看,市場最關注的智慧型手機與筆電領域呈現兩樣情。手機方面,目前各品牌廠DRAM及NAND Flash庫存皆在8~10週的高水位,主要是受到近期印度第二波疫情衝擊,使全球生產量的年成長幅度自9.4%下修至8.5%所致。然近期中國部分品牌廠開始下修生產目標,陸續進入調整長短料庫存週期,加上東南亞疫情二次爆發使生產及消費力下滑的兩大新因素,下半年恐將替庫存已位於高水位的手機品牌廠再添隱憂。

PC OEM DRAM平均庫存最高達10週

筆電方面,目前PC OEM DRAM平均庫存為8~10週,部分PC OEM庫存更超過該水位。主因是今年筆電市場需求仍持續受惠於宅經濟效應,生產台數上看2.38億台,年增14.3%,然受到上游幾項明顯缺貨的零組件如音效轉換晶片(Audio Codec)、類比IC (Analog IC)、電源控制晶片(Power IC)、微控制器(MCU)及LED驅動晶片(LED driver)等影響,採購端亦擔憂記憶體也會成為致使終端無法生產的缺口,故今年上半年大幅加大採購量。而NAND Flash則持續受限於控制器IC的缺貨,庫存量低於DRAM,平均庫存達4~5週。

 

2021年第二季到第三季DRAM及NAND Flash價格漲幅預測。

(來源:TrendForce)

 

整體而言,TrendForce預期,下半年中國智慧型手機品牌廠將放緩mobile DRAM與NAND Flash的採購,但其他終端應用需求依舊強勁,故整體記憶體合約價格仍不易下跌。而在PC與NB領域,後續短料的供給達成率(fulfillment rate)變化,將成為PC OEM開始審視其長料庫存的指標,值得注意的是,由於PC OEM的DRAM庫存較高,下半年PC DRAM漲幅將因此明顯收斂。

 

 

 

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