第三季繪圖用記憶體合約市場供給仍吃緊

作者 : TrendForce

近期Graphics DRAM在合約與現貨市場走勢差距甚大,合約市場貨況仍相當短缺,不僅報價持續看漲,部分中小型客戶的訂單滿足率也僅約三成,預期此供需緊張的態勢將延續至第三季…

TrendForce調查,近期繪圖用記憶體(Graphics DRAM)在合約與現貨市場走勢差距甚大,合約市場貨況仍相當短缺,不僅報價持續看漲,部分中小型客戶的訂單滿足率也僅約三成,預期此供需緊張的態勢將延續至第三季,並再度拉漲graphics DRAM合約價8~13%。至於現貨領域,自今年初至5月中,受到虛擬貨幣一路上漲所致,不論新舊顯卡需求皆大幅上升,在價格最高點時,甚至會有現貨價比合約價高出200%的情況。因此,若虛擬貨幣尚未回到之前的盛況,在礦工對於顯卡需求較低的情況下,預期將會縮小第三季Graphics DRAM現貨與合約價之間的價差。 從合約市場來看,其續漲有四大原因,首先是PC市場需求不墜,尤以電競相關的產品最為明顯;其次為Nvidia持續採用GPU搭Graphics DRAM組合銷售的策略,故能夠取得較大量的原廠貨源,進而對其他客戶產生排擠。第三,XBOX Series X ,以及 PS5遊戲機皆搭載GDDR6 16Gb,而非顯卡主要用的8Gb,意即原廠投片量定案後,兩者無法互相轉換。第四,由於伺服器DRAM訂單陸續回溫,原廠仍將優先滿足該主流市場,在供給端產能互相排擠下,Graphics DRAM合約價仍看漲,尤其中小型OEM、ODM恐仍面臨雙位數的漲幅。 GDDR5和GDDR6現貨價格雙雙下跌 從現貨市場來看,GDDR6自上月以來雖有所下滑,但相比合約價,溢價仍達近一倍;GDDR5則已與合約價相差無幾。整體走跌原因除了先前現貨、合約價差過高以外,最主要的原因是虛擬貨幣需求走弱所致。受到近期虛擬貨幣價格回跌影響,挖礦誘因大減,致使舊顯卡如採用GDDR5的NVIDIA GTX 1660,在無其他終端需求可以彌補該需求缺口的情況下,使得GDDR5的價格大跌;然新顯卡方面,由於仍有電競玩家的基本需求支撐,加上其所需的Graphics DRAM同遊戲機(game console)皆為GDDR6。因此,在現貨市場中,由於GDDR6需求有撐,故其跌幅也較GDDR5來的低。  

2021年第一季到第三季Graphics DRAM價格漲幅預估。

(來源:TrendForce)

       

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