「元宇宙」產業能成形嗎?

虛擬實境(VR)是一項人們津津樂道了數十年的技術,但其最大的收益似乎還要等到未來才能顯現。當下,全球最大的公司之一Facebook將其未來押注在開發VR的潛力上。

時長: 33:18 | 發佈者: EE Times Taiwan | 發佈時間: 2021-11-25

「元宇宙」產業能成形嗎?

BRIAN SANTO: I’m Brian Santo, EE Times editor-in-chief. You’re listening to EE Times On Air, and this is the Weekly Briefing for the week ending November 5th.

Brian Santo:我是《EE Times》美國版主編Brian Santo,您正在收聽的是EE Times On Air。

Virtual reality is another one of those technologies that people have been talking about for decades but whose biggest payoffs seem to remain stubbornly in the future. Now Facebook, one of the biggest companies on the face of the planet, is betting its future on unleashing the potential of VR.

虛擬實境(VR)是一項人們津津樂道了數十年的技術,但其最大的收益似乎還要等到未來才能顯現。當下,全球最大的公司之一Facebook將其未來押注在開發VR的潛力上。

Mark Zuckerberg’s grandiose plan to remake his troubled social platform Facebook into a VR powerhouse has cultural hurdles, of course. But Facebook will also be facing technological challenges; and furthermore, Zuckerberg could be steering his company into an area where he might run in to some formidable competition. This week, life, the metaverse, and everything with our guest Kevin Krewell, principal analyst at Tirias Research.

當然, Mark Zuckerberg要把他陷入困境的社交平台Facebook轉型為VR巨擘的宏圖難免存在文化障礙,Facebook也會面臨技術挑戰。此外,Zuckerberg此番願景可能將Facebook導入一個競爭激烈的領域。我們邀請到了(市場研究機構) Tirias Research的首席分析師Kevin Krewell,他將與我們一起探討生活、元宇宙及相關的一切。

How long have we been talking about virtual reality? The concept of creating digital environments with the use of modern computers goes back to at least the late 1960s. Computer scientist and artist Myron Krueger was using the phrase “artificial reality” in the 1970s. In the 1980s, Jaron Lanier, who created some of the first virtual reality hardware systems at his company, VPL Research, certainly didn’t invent the phrase, but he unquestionably popularized it.

我們談論虛擬實境有多久了?用現代電腦創造數位環境的理念最早能追溯到1960年代晚期。電腦科學家兼藝術家Myron Krueger在1970年代用的是「人造現實」一詞。到了1980年代,Jaron Lanier的公司VPL Research打造了首批虛擬實境硬體系統,儘管Jaron Lanier不是該詞的發明者,但毫無疑問是他普及了「虛擬實境」這一說法。

The upshot here is that the idea of virtual reality – or VR – has been percolating for a long, long time. But VR has yet to truly take off for a lot of reasons. It’s neither cheap nor easy to create both rich virtual environments for mass consumption and the infrastructure necessary to sustain them.

結論就是,虛擬實境--或稱VR--的想法已經醞釀了很長一段時間。但基於種種原因,VR產業還未真正起步。創造豐富的虛擬環境供大眾消費,以及建設維護其運行的基礎設施既造價不菲,又難度頗高。

Over the years, various companies have dabbled in VR, but among the largest companies, Facebook in particular has been dedicated to the technology. It bought goggle developer Oculus in 2014, and has stuck with that business. For the last year or so, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been talking up VR, or as he hopes to brand it, “the metaverse.” That term definitely is not new, by the way. It was probably coined by writer Neal Stephenson in his 1982 novel, “Snow Crash.” If you like science fiction and you haven’t read it, you really ought to get to it.

多年來,不少公司對開發VR均有涉獵,但在一些規模最大的公司中,Facebook尤其致力於此。Facebook於2014年收購了VR眼鏡製造商Oculus,並堅持發展這項業務。過去一年多,Facebook執行長Mark Zuckerberg一直在鼓吹VR,也就是他所標榜的「元宇宙」這一概念。順便一提,這個詞絕不是新造的。它可能源自Neal Stephenson1982年的小說《雪崩》。如果你是科幻小說愛好者,並且還沒看過這本書的話,那它值得一讀。

Anyway, Zuckerberg recently doubled down on the metaverse, declaring that Facebook’s future will be in VR. His pitch is that the change in corporate mission is so radical it merits changing the name of the company to Meta. Facebook says the name change has nothing to do with its problems that have sprung out of its inherent refusal to take any responsibility for its business model or its actions. Hey, maybe they sincerely believe that. Anything is possible. Which explains why we’re talking about VR today.

總而言之,Zuckerberg近來大力宣揚元宇宙,稱Facebook的未來就在VR。他改變公司使命的想法如此激進,不惜將公司改名為Meta。Facebook表示,更名與它本身的問題無關,這些問題是公司不願為其商業模式或行為承擔任何責任所導致的,他們向來如此。但說不定他們真的想創建元宇宙。一切皆有可能。這也是為什麼我們今天探討AR的原因。

And that brings me to introducing today’s guest. Kevin Krewell is a principal analyst with Tirias Research, where one of his areas of coverage just happens to be VR and AR. Kevin is an industry veteran, a savvy watcher of technological and business developments, and we’re pleased that he’s been a regular guest on this podcast.

首先我介紹一下今天的嘉賓。Kevin Krewell是Tirias Research的首席分析師,虛擬實境(VR)與擴增實境(AR)正好是他的研究領域之一。Kevin是業界資深人士,對技術和業務發展有深刻的洞察力,我們很高興他能成為本節目的固定班底。

Here’s my conversation with Kevin about life, the metaverse, and everything.

以下是我和Kevin關於生活、元宇宙及相關一切的對話。

********************************

BRIAN SANTO: So we have noticed, you and I, that there’s this amazing new trend called The Metaverse.

Brian Santo:所以就像我們都注意到的,現在有一個很神奇的新趨勢「元宇宙」(The Metaverse)。

KEVIN KREWELL: How meta!

Kevin Krewell:很「meta」!

BRIAN SANTO: Yeah, exactly. What’s a meta you?

Brian Santo:真的…What’s a meta you?

KEVIN KREWELL: Hey, what’s a madda you? Eh?

Kevin Krewell:嘿, what’s a madda you? Eh? (EETT編按:兩位來賓只是在模仿下面提及的一部美國老動畫的主角)

BRIAN SANTO: Yeah. Let’s hope there are some people out there who remember Bullwinkle and Rocky. So, we’ve got Facebook, famously either, well, they were on the metaverse before they got into a lot of trouble. So it’s legitimately not only a distraction from whatever political winds they’re facing, but it’s a real idea that Facebook has been looking into for a while.

Brian Santo:好。希望還有聽眾記得《Bullwinkle and Rocky》這部動畫。眾所周知,Facebook在麻煩纏身以前就開始研究元宇宙了。這樣做不僅合法緩解了他們面臨的一切政治風波,也是Facebook的真實意圖,他們已經研究元宇宙一段時間了。

KEVIN KREWELL: They bought Oculus for that very reason, right? They bought Oculus because they wanted to double down on this idea of an extended connection between people using virtual reality. So Mark Zuckerberg is a true believer in that sort of Metaverse, “Ready Player One” type of view of the world.

Kevin Krewell:他們收購Oculus也為了這個原因,對吧?他們收購Oculus是想借助虛擬實境拓展人與人之間的連結,Mark Zuckerberg眼中的元宇宙是就是電影《一級玩家》(Ready Player One)裡的那種世界。

BRIAN SANTO: Yeah, well, I guess the question is, how many more people will buy in? I mean, you take a look at, for instance, you take a look at a visionary like Elon Musk, builds Tesla, and everybody has to play catch up. I mean, Oculus has been around for a while and nobody’s really… Not nobody. It’s VR and AR still hasn’t caught fire. It’s still an idea, but it just hasn’t caught fire yet.

Brian Santo:是的,我想問題就在於,有多少人認同他的想法?比如說,像Elon Musk這樣富有遠見的人物,他創立了特斯拉,所有人都只能處在不斷追趕的狀態。我想說的是,Oculus已經成立了一段時間,但沒有人能真正……也不能說沒有人。只是VR和AR始終沒有成為主流,仍只是一個概念,未引起廣泛關注。

KEVIN KREWELL: Yeah, I’d agree, except for the fact that they have sold millions of these Oculus Rift headsets. Now the question is, how many of those are sitting in closets collecting dust? So there was definitely a sense that this was cool. This is new. Everybody wanted one. There were a shortage of them. People bought them a couple years ago, and last year to The Quest II came out. And then they used it for a little while.

Kevin Krewell:是的,我同意,哪怕他們已經賣出數百萬套Oculus Rift系列頭戴顯示器。現在的問題是,那些裝置有多少已經被束之高閣?當時人們一定覺得它很酷,覺得這是新科技,每個人都想擁有一套。那時它們還缺貨。人們幾年前買過一副,去年又推出了Quest 2系列,但人們買了以後也只用一下子。

And then a lot of times, they just got put aside and never picked up again. Even during the Oculus Connect event. There was a question that John Carmack, their consulting CTO, suggested that this could be a real problem. That they there’s just not people just picking it up and just getting into it. And some of it is, it’s kind of clunky still. You need these controllers in your hands to track stuff. The thing on your face is kind of bulky. You get maybe a couple hours at best of use before the battery runs out. Because they don’t have a lot of battery in it.

人們大多數時間就是把那些頭戴顯示器擺在一邊,沒再戴過,甚至是在Oculus Connect開發者大會上--這是Oculus技術長John Carmack指出的實際問題所在,人們就是不想把它們拿起來戴上,一則是因為裝置本身仍有點笨重,再者你得握著控制手把去追蹤物體,在臉上的東西也略感累贅。而且因為顯示器裡放不下大量電池,可能玩幾個小時就沒電了

But there’s a whole bunch of new titles coming. And in a couple weeks, I’m gonna be at Augmented World Expo, which is one of the big events in this space, and there’s a whole bunch of new headsets coming out.

但即將有一大堆新產品問世。該產業領域的一個大型展會Augmented World Expo就會展出一系列新型頭戴式顯示器。

But certainly the company that has invested most in the metaverse type of concept is Facebook. They’re selling the Oculus stuff pretty much at cost. So that’s both good news and bad news. It’s good because it gets a lot of headsets out to a lot of people at a reasonable price. But it’s bad because it’s difficult for anybody to compete with them, because it’s subsidized.

可以確定的是,在元宇宙型概念上投資最多的就是Facebook。他們幾乎是以成本價出售Oculus產品。這有利有弊,好處在於它價格合理,讓很多人買得起頭戴式顯示器。壞就壞在其他公司很難與他們競爭,因為Oculus有補貼。

You know, Mark, Zuckerberg and Facebook are throwing billions of dollars at this thing. And so they’re underpricing it to try to get it to a large group of people. So it’s kind of a mixed bag there.

你知道,Mark Zuckerberg和Facebook在頭戴式顯示器產品上投入了數十億美元,他們壓低價格是為了擴大使用者族群,所以說有利有弊。

BRIAN SANTO: Yeah. So a part of the question, I guess, is what you actually use this stuff for. So you’ve got different applications, some of it’s gaming, we know that there’s some that’s industrial, but those tend to be really valuable, but also really low volume.

Brian Santo:是的。所以我猜測,問題的一部分在於實際上怎麼使用該裝置,會有許多不同的應用,有一部份是遊戲,有一部分是工業應用,後者的價值更高,但實際上數量會比較少。

INTERVIEWER: Yeah. And those have been around for a very, very long time. Augmented reality glasses for repair work, construction, that type of application. These types of glasses have been around for a long time, actually, for those applications, industrial.

Kevin Krewell:沒錯。AR眼鏡應用於設備維修、建築之類的場景已經很長一段時間了。那些類型的已經用在這些工業應用上很久了。

BRIAN SANTO: Right, right. Those companies are doing okay, but their business model is kind of a low-volume thing. You know, Zuckerberg, Facebook, they’re talking about millions, maybe tens of millions. And then there are other companies in the industry that are interested in VR, or could have an interest in VR, they’re positioned to do it. But part of the question is, what is VR? I mean, it sounds like Zuckerberg is thinking about this, like this social universe. You know, you talk to Microsoft, they’re talking about maybe gaming for the Xbox. What’s the metaverse? And is it different from company to company?

Brian Santo:是啊,那些公司做得還不錯,但他們的商業模式算是小量。你知道,對於Zuckerberg以及Facebook而言,他們想要的是數以百萬計、甚至千萬計的規模。只要業界還有其他公司對VR感興趣或可能有興趣,他們就要去做這個生意。但有一個問題是,什麼是VR?我的意思是說,Zuckerberg似乎想將VR應用於社交網路。但如果你去問微軟,他們則是要將VR應用於 Xbox。那元宇宙呢?不同公司對元宇宙的定義會不會不同?

KEVIN KREWELL: Well, let me just clarify that Microsoft has yet to actually promote a VR solution for Xbox. Sony, though, has PlayStation VR. And they’ve been using that for gaming. Yeah, Microsoft has focused on the industrial applications, the visualization. They just announced Microsoft Mesh, which is a co-presence type of application. And this is actually very similar to what Nvidia has been talking about with their Omniverse, which is kind of a mix of 2D reality through flat screens and 3D using VR or AR headsets to allow people to cooperate on projects, if it’s a work project, or cohabitate spaces.

Kevin Krewell:關於這點我想澄清一下,微軟實際上並不推Xbox使用的VR方案,反而是Sony有PlayStation VR,他們一直有把VR用在遊戲機上。沒錯,微軟專注於工業應用,也就是視覺化方案。他們才剛發表Microsoft Mesh,一種「共在」(co-presence;EETT編按:即共享虛擬空間/協作)的應用。它實際上與Nvidia一直宣傳的「Omniverse」高度相似,Omniverse是2D和3D的結合,即平面顯示器與VR/AR頭戴顯示器搭配使用,人們可以進行專案協作,這是一種工作專案或共治(cohabitate)空間。

I mean, some of it is, you know, we’ve talking about Zoom fatigue. People are just tired of doing flat video conferencing. If you’ve got more of a presence through a holograph, or holo presence of some sort, maybe that’s more natural, and maybe that’s more interactive, and it feels more like you’re in touch with the other person and coexisting in a space of virtual rooms, I would say.

我們講過Zoom視訊會議疲勞症(Zoom fatigue)…人們厭倦了這種平面式的視訊會議,所以如果透過全像投影或某種全像技術呈現你的存在,可能會更自然、更具互動性,感覺更像是與對方共處於一個虛擬房間內接觸。

So there’s advantages there. Whereas Zuckerberg is definitely more social, although the lead application for VR has always been gaming in that regard. But Mark wants it to go beyond gaming. He wants this kind of co-presence in a VR world. And that’s pretty much “Ready Player One” type of environment, where you go into a virtual reality environment, you work with other people, they have their own avatars, you build stuff, you trade stuff, and it becomes its own virtual economy as well. And again, this is not completely new. I mean, if there’s anybody old enough to remember Second Life…

所以優勢就在於此,儘管Zuckerberg肯定更著重於社交網路應用,但VR的應用主要在遊戲上。Mark看重的不僅是遊戲,而是VR 世界裡的「共在」。就很像是《一級玩家》所描述的場景,你進入一個虛擬實境世界,與其他人一起工作,每個人都有各自的虛擬「分身」,在那裡打造東西、做交易,然後變成自己的虛擬經濟。再次強調,這不是一個新想法。我是說,年紀夠老的人可能還記得《第二人生》(Second Life)這款遊戲…

BRIAN SANTO: What do you mean old enough to remember? Second Life still exists, man!

Brian Santo:你說夠老是什麼意思?《第二人生》還在咧兄弟!

KEVIN KREWELL: I know. It’s still around. And then there was a follow-on, Sensar, from the same guys, which was a better virtualization environment. But yeah, Second Life, which was really designed just for 2D screens, but a virtual place where you could build and trade and sell items in a virtual economy, as well as like, you know, companies like IBM would have virtual reality meetings in Second Life.

Kevin Krewell:我知道,它還在營運,還出了後續版本Sensar,是同一批人研發的,虛擬環境做得更好。然而,《第二人生》實際上是為2D螢幕設計的,但人們可以在這樣一個虛擬世界中發展事業,在一個虛擬經濟中交易和銷售物品,而像IBM這些公司,可能會在《第二人生》中召開虛擬會議。

So we’ve been kicking this thing around for a while. And what’s getting better is the hardware. And the company that actually does most of the hardware for standalone VR and AR is Qualcomm. Qualcomm is positioning themselves as the lead in this area, and they’ve continued to invest in it. You know, Samsung had dabbled in it and then sort of lost interest. There are other companies that could do more work in this area, like MediaTech, Huawei, whatever. Those companies haven’t really stepped up yet to a volume platform, whereas Qualcomm has created their own version of the chips, specifically for AR or VR. They’ve invested more in this space than anybody else has, and keep building reference platforms and such.

所以我們已經開始這些東西好一陣子了,我們的硬體越來越好。實際上為VR/AR單機提供大部分硬體的公司是高通,高通將自己視為該領域的領導者並持續投資。三星對VR曾有涉略,後來也失去了興趣;其他公司可能會在此一領域著墨更多,像是聯發科技、華為等等,不過它們的發展還不到量產平台的規模,高通則是已經開發了專用於AR或VR的系列晶片。他們比起其他人在該領域的投資更多,也持續打造參考平台之類的方案。

BRIAN SANTO: In your estimation, is the set of skills you need for building a virtual reality platform unique? Or could someone like a Huawei or MediaTech or whoever just decide, okay, we’re committing to this. Bing! We’re in and we’re competitive. Or if somebody were to make that decision, they’d be playing catch up with Qualcomm?

Brian Santo:在你看來,打造虛擬實境平台是否需要獨特的技能?或者是說像華為、聯發科等任何一家公司,都可以立馬決定他們要進軍這一領域…直接說,嘿!我們來了,我們有競爭力。還是說,如果有人決定要進入該市場,就得立志追上高通?

KEVIN KREWELL: Well, they’re playing catch up with Qualcomm just because Qualcomm has done the most work so far. So you have to catch up with what they’ve already invested into developing reference platforms, understanding 6DOF type of tracking, all the tracking algorithms and the working with the vendors in terms of optics. The optics have to be tuned for VR and AR.

Kevin Krewell:嗯…他們要追上高通,只是因為高通到目前為止做的最多,所以無論是開發參考平台、理解6DOF式追蹤和一切追蹤演算法,還是與供應商在光學方面進行合作,讓光學元件根據VR/AR進行調校,都必須趕上高通的腳步。

BRIAN SANTO: And that’s not insignificant.

Brian Santo:這不是小工程。

KEVIN KREWELL: No, no, it’s not. But it’s not to say that nobody can’t do it. They’re just a matter of making the investment. And I think what is, everybody’s waiting for the market to really develop. There’s probably not enough market share for everybody to get involved. So all right, Qualcomm’s got it for now, if at some point in time the thing really takes off, it really starts selling tens of millions of units, then I expect other companies will step into this space.

Kevin Krewell:確實不小,但也不是說沒人能做得到,就是要投資。而我認為問題在於,大家都在等VR市場真正發展,該市場應該沒辦法讓每個人都分得到一杯羹。所以好吧,現在高通已經佔據了優勢地位,在某個時間點當市場真正起飛,高通實際開始出貨上千萬,我預期也會有其他公司涉足該領域。

And it’s not even to say that a company like Facebook or the other vendors in this area don’t build their own chip. Facebook has capability of doing chip designs. Google does. Right now Google I think has been there, done that. I think they’re holding off getting involved in the metaverse at this point in time. But you know, they could at some point in time say, This is too important. Facebook’s in it. Microsoft’s in it. We at Google need to be in it as well. So there’ll be another player I could see getting involved.

更別說像Facebook那樣的公司或其他供應商不會去自己開發晶片,Facebook擁有晶片設計能力,Google也是。我認為Google目前也有能力,只是此時此刻還沒有要涉足元宇宙市場;但你也知道,他們可能某天就會說,這個市場太重要了,因為Facebook已經進去了,微軟也進去了,所以我們Google也需要加入。我可以預見未來還會有其他公司也參一腳。

BRIAN SANTO: Yeah, It’s interesting that you brought up Second Life. I’m of the opinion, having seen a lot of different technologies develop, Second Life was a great idea that was maybe a little bit too early, a little bit before the technology could really deliver on the promise.

Brian Santo:是啊…你剛提到的《第二人生》很有趣。我認為,見證過這麼多不同的技術發展,《第二人生》真是很棒的構想,不過或許有點太早出現了,早於技術能真正實現其願景的時候。

KEVIN KREWELL: Oh, yeah.

Kevin Krewell:確實。

BRIAN SANTO: And socially too early. I mean, the notion of living in a virtual space wasn’t really there. And now I’m thinking that’s no longer the case. I haven’t actually played the Farmville games. Where you actually have digital economy and people are trading resources and interacting with each other. And it’s on a flat 2D screen. I can see where there is culturally a greater openness to jump into a virtual world because they’ve already kind of been there. It was 2D. Going 3D probably would not be that big of a jump.

Brian Santo:以社交層面來看也太早…我的意思是說,當時並沒有生活在虛擬空間的想法。不過現在我認為情況已經完全不同。其實我沒玩過像是Farmville (EETT編按:類似開心農場)那樣的遊戲,玩家在其中擁有數位經濟,可以交易資源、彼此互動,那是在2D螢幕上的世界。我可以預見那些玩家們在文化上對於進入虛擬世界的接受度更高,因為他們已經有類似體驗,只是從2D轉向3D,並不是麼大的跳躍。

KEVIN KREWELL: Yeah. You know, one of the things that’s sort of interesting about how 3D gaming has evolved. The original video game started off in arcades, and then it migrated to home consoles, and then PCs and home consoles became, and arcades have sort of withered. There’s a Dave and Busters around still, but you don’t see too many arcades as you used to.

Kevin Krewell:是的。你知道嗎,3D遊戲的進展很有趣,一開始視訊遊戲是在遊樂場裡才有,後來轉移到家用遊戲機,又到了PC上,遊樂場已經式微。雖然還是可以看到一些像是Dave and Busters的遊樂場(EETT編按:類似「湯姆熊」,在美國經營提供餐飲與遊戲機台娛樂的連鎖業者),但這類場所不像以前那麼多了。

BRIAN SANTO: I was in Central Oregon last week, and they have a virtual reality arcade.

Brian Santo:我上個禮拜去了奧勒岡州中部,那邊有一個虛擬實境遊樂場。。

KEVIN KREWELL: Yes, that’s exactly the point I was gonna make. That there are now more virtual reality arcades. Now, because of the COVID vaccine, those guys had to shut down for a good part of the time, but they were developing arcades for real virtual reality type of experiences, multi-people experiences using VR headsets and such.

Kevin Krewell:沒錯,這正是我想說的。現在有越來越多的虛擬實境遊樂場,受新冠疫情影響不得不閉關一段時間;不過他們正在開發一種能讓人實際體驗虛擬實境,利用VR頭戴顯示器等裝置進行多人體驗的娛樂場所。

And there’s some interesting stuff that you can do with that environment, where you can actually make a space in virtual reality look bigger than it physically is, by actually changing your perception. And you can actually think you’re in a bigger space than you actually are wearing a VR headset.

你可以在虛擬環境中做一些有趣的事,實際上是透過改變你的感知,讓虛擬實境中的空間看起來會比實際更大,你也會相信自己真的進入了一個更大的空間,而不是在你戴著VR頭盔的地方。

But yeah, that’s sort of like we had the headsets first, and now we’re getting the arcades. So it’s a little bit backwards, but yeah, arcades are starting to show up.

這感覺是我們先有頭戴顯示器,後來才又有遊樂場的出現,所以有點像是倒退發展,但沒錯,遊樂場又開始出現了。

BRIAN SANTO: Wow, cool. So what do you feel, as a guy who’s watched technology develop over the years? What are your expectations for this as a legitimate business? Is it still too early? Are the conditions right? What do you think?

Brian Santo:酷!那你的感覺是什麼?身為一個多年來觀察科技進展的人,你對元宇宙成為一種正規產業有什麼期望?你會認為還太早嗎?現在條件合適嗎?你怎麼想?

KEVIN KREWELL: I don’t know it. It could be one of those situations where it sounds better in theory than in practice. And I think part of that is the hardware needs to get better. And then there’s going to be this mixed reality blending between VR headsets with pass-through cameras, so you can sort of see what’s around you, and they can make stuff that way. Versus AR headsets, which are sort of like glasses but will have projected images on the glasses in your eyes. Your field of view. So there’s a blending of those. And I think that’s what we’re waiting for.

Kevin Krewell:我不知道。有可能理論上的VR比現實產物更好,我認為一部分原因是硬體還有進步空間,接下來要利用配備透視(pass-through)攝影機的VR頭戴顯示器實現混合實境,玩家就能看到周遭景物圍,開發者也可以用這種方式打造東西。AR頭戴顯示器類似眼鏡,會在你眼前的鏡片投射圖像,在你的視野裡;我們正在等待的是這兩者的結合。

One company that was very deep into the AR side was Magic Leap. And they’ve got hundreds of millions of dollars invested in them. And they just didn’t reach their potential, and they’ve taken a step back, rebooted the company, and are a little more focused, but they’re still having struggles there. The AR side is just waiting for the right technology, the right field of view, optics Everybody believes it’s going to come. But it’s gonna take some time. That’s definitely a situation where the technology needs to be better.

有一家深耕AR技術的公司叫做Magic Leap,他們募得了數億美元資金,卻未能充分發揮自身潛力;不過他們已經退一步重新啟動公司,更專注投入研發,儘管如此仍面臨窘境。在AR方面,我們只是還在等待合適的技術、恰當的視野和光學元件,每個人都認為會實現,只是需要時間;確實還存在技術需要更好的情況。

But I think most people are more excited about that idea — especially us who wear glasses. The people that don’t wear glasses, they may not be as thrilled to the idea of having to wear glasses, but I don’t mind. Where you can project images and see overlays in your eye. And that’s pure science fiction. And I think that could be really cool. And I’m more excited about that.

但我認為大多數人對元宇宙更感興趣——尤其是我們這些戴眼鏡的人。不戴眼鏡的人可能對於得戴眼鏡的點子不感到那麼興奮,但我不介意戴眼鏡,你可以看到投射在你眼前的影像以及疊加的資訊,完全像是科幻小說裡的場景;我認為這會很酷,我對此更覺得興奮。

But that’s still five years out I think. The VR stuff is here now. Clunky as it may be. It can get better over time, lighter headsets. I think there’s a lot of work can be done to make the headsets lighter and more comfortable. But yet balancing battery life and performance. It’s a lot of engineering trade-offs there too. But those are here now, and you can get a feel for what’s possible by using those.

不過我想還要5年。VR裝置已經有了,或許還很笨重,隨著時間能變得更好、有更輕的頭戴裝置。我認為要讓頭戴顯示器的更輕、更舒適,還有很多要做的事情;此外要兼顧電池壽命和性能,在設計上也還有很多需要權衡的地方。不過那些東西都已經有了,可以體驗使用的感覺。

I’ve got the Oculus Quest, Quest 2. I had the original Oculus Rift. I still have that, actually. And so I’ve dabbled in it. But there’s some cool stuff. Cool games like Beat Saber’s a great game. There’s a bunch of really cool games in it as well. But I’m still waiting for the real wow thing that makes me want to put it on every day. And that hasn’t happened.

我有Oculus Quest系列的頭戴顯示器Quest 2,我也有一開始的Oculus Rift,現在還留著,實際上我也用過。還是有一些不錯的東西,以及像是《Beat Saber》(節奏光劍)那樣一些很酷的遊戲。不過我還在等待會讓我每天都想戴上VR頭盔、真正令人驚豔的東西問世。那還未發生。

BRIAN SANTO: Yeah. Yeah. Google Glasses are like what now? It’s like six,, seven years ago? Was it that long ago?

Brian Santo:嗯嗯…那Google眼鏡現在怎樣?它好像是六年還七年前誕生的?有那麼久了嗎?

KEVIN KREWELL: Oh, yeah. Every else thought they were dorky.

Kevin Krewell:喔,對啊…所有人都覺得Google眼鏡很笨重。

BRIAN SANTO: Well, yeah. And some people were kind of hostile. I kind of got it. But it was also interesting, because Google glasses were coming out just as the communications companies were thinking about rolling out 5G, and their thing was, Oh, you don’t have to do heavy glasses. You just need to be able to connect into the ubiquitous 5g network. So much for ubiquitous 5G networks, but the idea being that if you had pervasive networks with the kind of bandwidth that you can bop, bop back and forth to, you could feed those glasses and make them lighter. And I’m wondering to what extent you hear anything about that.

Brian Santo:是啊…有些人對它有些抵觸。我可以理解,也很有趣的是,就在通訊業者打算推出5G的時候,穀歌眼鏡就問世了。通信公司當時做的宣傳是,無需佩戴笨重眼鏡,5G網路無處不在。無處不在也不過如此,但如果你有無處不在的網路,還有可以來回切換的頻寬,就能隨時給眼鏡充電,設計時可以減輕眼鏡的重量。你對此瞭解多少?

KEVIN KREWELL: Well, Qualcomm is still pitching that idea. I think that’s it’s still part of the 5G thing. Now, Google glasses was the 4G LTE timeframe. So it was too early. The other thing is, especially with Google Glass, it had a very limited heads-up display on just one side of the glass. It wasn’t AR, it was really more of a heads-up display, as you might call it. And the amount of information that you could display in that could easily be handled by 4G LTE.

Kevin Krewell:Qualcomm仍沒有放棄這個想法。我認為它還是屬於5G產品。Google眼鏡採用的是4G的LTE技術時間幀。所以,談5G還為時尚早。還有一點,特別是Google眼鏡,只在鏡片的一側有一個平視顯示器,角度非常有限。它不算AR眼鏡,可以這麼說,它實際上更像是一種平視顯示器。4G的LTE技術能輕鬆處理眼鏡中顯示的資訊量。

The other thing was that it could record video, and you could compress and stream that video back up to the cloud as well. But the video is what freaked everybody out. Because that’s like, You’re recording me? You’re looking at me? Where are you? And it what took a while for people to accept the idea that somebody was wearing glasses that recorded video that could be recording you.

Google眼鏡還有錄影功能,可以對視訊進行壓縮並傳回雲端。但這個功能嚇到了所有人。因為人們會懷疑,你在拍我嗎?你在看我?你在哪裡?人們花了一段時間才接受那個戴著眼鏡的人也許正在偷拍你。

And then Snapchat did their own glasses. So there are a number of glass solutions here with cameras in it. They still haven’t taken off because the biggest problem is battery. You try to make it light, where’s the battery? So one of the solutions, this is what Magic Leap did. And this is what they used to do with regular AR, augmented reality, glasses. They would wire down to a puck, more or less, a standalone little device that would have the batteries in it, it would have the processor, so it wasn’t heavy on the headset. The other thing is, people are going to get a little freaked out if you put a 5G headset or 5G radio right next to you.

後來Snapchat開發了他們自己的眼鏡。所以現在市面上有不少配備攝影機的眼鏡產品,但它們還沒有流行,最大的問題就在於電池。想減輕眼鏡的重量,電池要放在哪裡?對此Magic Leap提出了一個解決方案。他們對標準AR眼鏡做的是連結一個冰球大小的獨立裝置,裡面有電池、有處理器,對頭戴顯示器來說不重。不過還有一個問題是,有人對於戴上支援5G通訊的頭戴顯示器或者距離5G無線電太近有點畏懼。

BRIAN SANTO: Right next to your head.

Brian Santo:就在腦袋旁邊。

KEVIN KREWELL: Yeah, right next to your temple. Having the radio removed from your head a little bit is not a bad idea. There are also — and this is also common right now — is tethered. So your phone is still used as your connectivity and for your compute. And then the glasses are just basically a dumb display in a sense. So that’s another way of getting around the cost/weight issue. But the idea is, you now have a tether. Maybe you could do it with Bluetooth 5.2 has maybe low power, you could stream it. It all depends on if you really want to do high resolution video on the displays, Bluetooth is not good at that. It’s thought to be really a WiFi solution. And then once you put WiFi there, you’ve got radio and batteries and stuff. So it’s a bit of a trade off.

Kevin Krewell:是啊,就貼在太陽穴上。讓5G無線電遠離腦袋是個不錯的主意,而且綁定式的解決方案現在也很常見,就是讓手機支援連結以及運算;如此一來,VR眼鏡從某種意義上說只是個單純的顯示器。所以這是另一種平衡成本與重量的方法。但這種方法需要一條線,也可以用5.2版本的藍牙,它的功耗可能很低,可以串流視訊。這取決於你是否真的想要顯示器上有高解析度視訊。藍牙在這一方面並不擅長,但被認為實際上是WiFi解決方案。不過一旦有WiFi在那裡,就會有無線電波、電池等問題,這是一種折衷方案。

BRIAN SANTO: Hmm, interesting. All right. Have we exhausted this subject for the moment?

Brian Santo:嗯…有意思。好,對於這個主題你還有什麼要補充的嗎?

KEVIN KREWELL: Like I said, this is going to be a developing story over the years. We’ve been watching it develop, it’s still not going away. I think the buzz has gotten bigger due to the Facebook event. And Microsoft talking about their Mesh for business applications and co-presence type of applications. It’s going to be a subject for years to come, and I think it’s going to evolve and it’ll get better and eventually maybe we’ll hit that tipping point.

Kevin Krewell:就像我前面說的,元宇宙還需要歷過幾年的發展。我們一直在觀察它的的進展,它一直在那裡。我認為,人們因為Facebook對元宇宙的關注更高了。Microsoft也在研究Mesh的商業應用和共在類型應用。這會是未來幾年的課題,我相信技術會持續演進,最終也許我們能達到它成熟的那個臨界點。

(元宇宙討論至此結束,其餘內容的全文請參考此連結)

 

發表評論